By Okafor Joseph Afam
November 10, 2024

President-elect Donald J. Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election was fueled in part by his strong stance on immigration. Promising to remove undocumented immigrants and even some documented ones through policies like ending the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program, Trump’s proposed mass deportation plan has stirred significant debate. Experts warn that if these plans come to fruition, the economic ripple effects will impact key sectors such as construction, housing, and agriculture.

A Labor Shortage on the Horizon

Jason Leverant, President of AtWork Group, a staffing agency with a strong presence in immigrant-heavy industries like warehouses, agriculture, and construction, expressed concern about what these immigration policies might mean for talent availability. Leverant notes that while the post-COVID labor market has stabilized somewhat, many industries still face a shortage of workers. If mass deportations go into effect, he estimates that hundreds of thousands of job openings—many hard to fill—could arise across the nation.

“Deporting immigrants would amplify our labor shortage,” he stated. “We’re already seeing increased demand for workers, and removing immigrants will force wages up, impacting supply chains, consumer prices, and ultimately, the overall economy.”

Chad Prinkey, CEO of Well Built Construction Consulting, added that the American construction sector, where many undocumented immigrants work, would be especially hard-hit. “Many of these jobs can’t simply be filled by Americans. These workers are crucial, and their departure would affect every new construction project.”

Statistics Reveal the Scale of Potential Impact

The number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. ranges from 8 million to 11 million, according to various sources such as the Pew Research Center and the American Immigration Council. Of these, about 7 million hold jobs, with many employed in sectors that are already experiencing labor shortages. Prinkey emphasized that much of the construction labor force in the U.S. comprises undocumented workers, and these roles are difficult to fill.

In the agriculture industry, about one in four workers are undocumented. These laborers are critical for growing, picking, and packing food that reaches U.S. markets. Losing this workforce could reduce food production, increase food prices, and destabilize domestic agriculture. The USDA’s most recent figures indicate that over 40% of farmworkers are undocumented.

Skilled Workers at Risk Too

Concerns extend beyond unskilled labor. Policies targeting immigrants could deter skilled workers in fields like tech and engineering, which depend on foreign-born talent. Janeesa Hollingshead from Uber Works observed that Trump’s immigration policies during his previous term affected tech talent significantly. Many skilled immigrants on H-1B visas were warned that they might not be able to return if they left the U.S.

With stricter policies on H-1B visas and other professional visa categories, the U.S. risks losing valuable tech talent. As Hollingshead points out, companies will have to tap into overlooked domestic talent pools or face worsening talent shortages. “If we can’t adapt,” she warns, “we’ll face even greater workforce gaps.”

Economic and Social Costs of Deportation

Implementing mass deportation would be logistically challenging and prohibitively expensive. Estimates from the American Immigration Council suggest that deporting one million people per year would cost around $88 billion annually, totaling nearly $1 trillion over more than a decade. Trump has dismissed concerns about costs, stating that the removal of criminal elements has no price tag. However, others argue that the economic fallout will be severe.

David Leopold, an immigration attorney, believes that mass deportations could lead to consumer price increases, supply chain disruptions, and delays in access to goods and services. Construction and housing markets are particularly vulnerable, with potential spikes in building costs and extended project timelines. Nan Wu from the American Immigration Council estimates that in the construction industry alone, deportations would remove one in eight workers, pushing up housing costs and making it harder for Americans to afford homes.

Balancing Immigration Policy and Economic Stability

Conservative think tank American Compass advocates for a skills-based immigration system, which includes enforcement measures like mandatory E-Verify for all employers and fines for those who hire undocumented workers. They also propose temporary work permits for long-term undocumented residents, with pathways to legal status for those who pay fines and have no criminal record.

Prinkey echoed the need for thoughtful immigration reform, noting that undocumented workers are essential to the economy. “In sectors like housing construction, removing these workers would paralyze development. The ripple effects would differ regionally, but across the country, the shortage of labor would make projects slower and more costly.”

Conclusion: The Future of Trump’s Immigration Plan

Despite the ambitious promises, executing mass deportation at the proposed scale could prove unmanageable. The economic costs, workforce disruptions, and logistical challenges suggest that a more nuanced approach may be necessary. Experts, including Leopold and Prinkey, caution that enforcing such a large-scale removal may not be feasible without causing lasting economic damage.