Saudi Arabia Warns Oil Could Spike to $180 if Iran Conflict Persists

Story: written by Daniel March 20,2026

Saudi officials are privately signaling that global crude prices could soar past $180 per barrel if the disruptions caused by the Iran war continue beyond late April. While higher prices might seem advantageous, Riyadh views sharp spikes as destabilizing for long-term markets.

“Saudi Arabia prefers steady, moderate increases in oil prices while maintaining market share,” said Umer Karim, a geopolitics analyst at the King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies. Rapid surges, he noted, could threaten stability in global energy markets.

Tensions escalated this week after Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field prompted Tehran to retaliate, hitting Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy hub and Saudi facilities at Yanbu, the Red Sea terminal for pipelines circumventing the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping have effectively limited passage through the strait, a route handling roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply.

The strikes pushed Brent crude futures to $119 per barrel before easing slightly. While still below the record $146.08 in 2008, analysts at Wood Mackenzie warn that $200 per barrel is a realistic possibility if the crisis continues into 2026.