Real Estate Surpasses Oil as Nigeria’s Third-Largest Economic Sector After GDP Rebasing
By Okafor Joseph | July 22, 2025
Lagos, Nigeria — July 22, 2025 — Nigeria’s real estate sector has officially overtaken crude oil as the third-largest contributor to the nation’s economy, according to newly released rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The updated GDP data — which spans 2019 to 2024 — reveals Nigeria’s economy expanded to N372.8 trillion ($145.3 billion at current exchange rates) in 2024. The rebasing reflects structural shifts in the economy, with services, industry, and agriculture emerging as key drivers of growth.
Despite the increase in nominal GDP, which rose from N205.09 trillion in 2019 to N372.82 trillion in 2024 — marking a 17.81% nominal growth in 2024 alone — millions of Nigerians continue to struggle with soaring inflation. As of June 2025, headline inflation stands at 22.22%, while food inflation has reached 21.97%.
This is the second GDP rebasing since 2014, aimed at aligning national economic data with current realities, including the growing relevance of sectors such as real estate, telecommunications, and digital services.
In real terms, the economy grew by 3.38% in 2024, slightly up from 3.04% in 2023. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed a slowdown, with GDP growth at 3.13% — the lowest since Q1 2024. Previous quarters recorded growth rates of 3.48% (Q2), 3.86% (Q3), and 3.76% (Q4).
Although Nigeria’s economy has expanded in size, it still ranks fourth in Africa, behind South Africa ($410.34 billion), Egypt ($347.34 billion), and Algeria ($268.89 billion), according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Expert Reactions: A Bigger Economy, But Not a Better Life
Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, stated that the rebasing gives a more accurate picture of Nigeria’s economic landscape, with real estate now occupying the third-largest spot, displacing crude oil.
“We’ve seen major structural changes,” he said. “Telecoms, agriculture, and industry have also recorded growth. Post-rebasing, agriculture’s contribution rose from 22.12% to 26%, industry from 21.08% to 27.7%, and services from 50.22% to 53.09%. Even the informal sector increased its share from 41% to 42.5%.”
Yusuf noted that while the GDP rebasing improves Nigeria’s global economic ranking and data credibility, it doesn’t automatically translate to improved welfare for citizens.
Gbolade Idakolo, CEO of SD & D Capital Management, echoed similar concerns. He emphasized that the expanded GDP could lead to higher macroeconomic expectations, such as a push to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio, which might hurt citizens already grappling with low income, high unemployment, and inflation.
Professor Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University, Ibadan, urged the government to convert the statistical gains into inclusive economic policies.
“A rebased GDP reflects diversification and growth in underreported sectors like e-commerce and tech,” Oyedokun said. “However, the benefits must be channeled into infrastructure, job creation, and human capital to truly impact citizens’ lives.”
Nigeria’s updated GDP figures highlight significant structural changes, with real estate emerging as a key economic force. However, without targeted policies aimed at inclusive growth, the expanded economy may remain a statistical improvement with limited real-world benefits for the average Nigerian.
