NNPC’s Rising Earnings Hide ₦6.3trn Debt Risks Beneath the Surface

Story: written by springnewsng February 24,2026
Nigeria’s state oil firm, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, is posting its strongest financial performance in years, with profits and revenue growing at an impressive pace. But a new assessment suggests those headline gains may be obscuring significant financial pressures building beneath the surface.
The company reported profit after tax of ₦4.6 trillion in 2024, up from ₦3.3 trillion the previous year, while revenue jumped 32 percent to ₦31.5 trillion. Projections indicate further growth in 2025, with net earnings expected to reach ₦5.1 trillion on revenues of ₦35.2 trillion. Profit margins have remained stable at about 14 percent, drawing favourable comparisons with other African national oil companies.
However, a February 2026 report by SBM Intelligence warns that these figures do not tell the full story. According to the report, NNPC carries more than ₦6.3 trillion in off-balance-sheet liabilities, including ₦5.4 trillion owed to refineries and about ₦890 billion linked to forward sale agreements. Additional litigation provisions further add to potential risks.
The report also highlights a ₦5.1 trillion fuel subsidy reimbursement owed to NNPC by the federal government. While classified as a receivable, analysts caution that its uncertain timing reflects long-standing financial entanglements between the company and the federal budget, complicating cash-flow planning.
On paper, NNPC’s balance sheet shows improvement, with assets rising and long-term debt projected to decline. Equity is expected to expand, and leverage ratios are forecast to improve. Yet analysts note that these positives do not account for the sizeable off-book obligations now in focus.
At the same time, operating costs are climbing, from higher personnel expenses to increased statutory and discretionary spending. Combined with legacy debts and unresolved subsidy claims, these pressures raise fresh questions about how sustainable NNPC’s recent profit surge will be once deferred obligations begin to crystallis