NNPC’s ₦5.4tr Profit Sparks Fresh Debate Over FG Dividend as Revenue Gaps Trigger Concerns
STORY: written by Zara November 25,2025
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited is once again under public scrutiny as analysts question how much of its record-breaking profit will actually reach the federal treasury. This comes after the company announced a profit-after-tax of ₦5.4 trillion for 2024, one of its strongest performances since transforming into a commercial entity under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
Speaking during an earnings briefing in Abuja, Group CEO Bayo Ojulari disclosed that NNPC generated ₦45.1 trillion in revenue, an 88% surge from the previous year, while profit grew by 64%. Earnings per share rose correspondingly to ₦27.07.
However, despite the glowing financial results, a review of NNPC’s August 2025 revenue and distribution schedule submitted to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) suggests serious gaps between expectations and actual remittances. Documents reviewed by BusinessDay show significant shortfalls across major production sharing contract (PSC) revenue components.
Against a combined year-to-date budget of ₦3.75 trillion, NNPC had remitted only ₦1.06 trillion by August—leaving a ₦2.69 trillion deficit.
Huge Gaps in PSC Contributions
The PSC profit segment—FAAC’s largest inflow source—fell notably short. NNPC projected ₦1.58 trillion in PSC profit but delivered ₦1.06 trillion, creating a ₦518.8 billion gap.
Other statutory set-asides also missed targets:
30% Management Fee: short by ₦155.6 billion
30% Frontier Exploration Fund: short by ₦155.6 billion
Federation’s 40% share: underperformed by ₦207.5 billion
In addition, the company completely failed to remit the scheduled ₦2.17 trillion interim dividend expected for the period—representing the single largest revenue shortfall and intensifying pressure on national finances.
Overall, the ₦2.69 trillion cumulative deficit is likely to reignite debates on NNPC’s transparency, fiscal discipline, and its readiness for full commercialisation under the PIA.
Rising Pressure on FG Revenue
With oil production still below target and the naira under continual pressure, the federal government has been banking on NNPC to play a stabilising role. Public expectations have soared under President Bola Tinubu, as the company is now legally positioned to operate as a profit-driven shareholder-owned entity.
But the latest earnings call did not reveal how much dividend the federal government—NNPC’s only shareholder—should expect or when.
Ojulari framed the results as evidence of the company’s positive turnaround:
“These earnings reflect the strong trajectory of our transformation and the dedication of our workforce. They form the foundation for our future growth and reaffirm our commitment to creating value for Nigerians.”
NNPC’s Expansion Vision
Flush with profit, the company is pursuing an ambitious roadmap to attract $60 billion in new investments across the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments before 2030. Key production goals include:
2 million barrels per day by 2027
3 million barrels per day by 2030
But Nigeria continues to battle chronic challenges—pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and declining infrastructure—that have repeatedly derailed output targets.
NNPC also plans to scale up natural gas output to:
10 billion cubic feet per day by 2027
12 billion cubic feet per day by 2030
Critical infrastructure such as the AKK pipeline, Escravos–Lagos system, and the OB3 link remains central to these targets.
Ojulari emphasised that transparency, innovation, and disciplined management will drive NNPC’s competitive global positioning.
Looking Ahead
Despite operational hurdles—cash-call obligations, cost-recovery rules, subsidy-related arrears, and persistent crude theft—Ojulari maintains that the outlook remains positive.
“We expect 2025 to outperform 2024 based purely on core operational performance, without relying on foreign-exchange gains,” he said.
