Nigeria’s October Oil Export Plan Falls to 1.44m bpd as Revenue Pressures Mount
Story: written by Okafor Joseph September 17,2025
Nigeria has released its crude oil loading schedule for October 2025, showing a planned export of 1.44 million barrels per day (bpd) across 17 crude and condensate grades. This represents a drop of 34,000 bpd from September’s 1.47 million bpd allocation.
The dip highlights the ongoing difficulties facing Africa’s top oil producer, ranging from technical bottlenecks and security concerns to funding gaps and OPEC+ quota restrictions.
Despite some improvement in crude production this year, revenues have not kept pace. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that crude export earnings fell by 11.3% year-on-year — down to ₦24.92 trillion in H1 2025, compared with ₦28.10 trillion in H1 2024 — even as production volumes rose 12.7%.
Industry experts cite multiple reasons for the squeeze:
- Weak global oil prices, which continue to depress Nigeria’s foreign exchange inflows.
- Crude-for-fuel swap deals and local refinery supply, reducing volumes available for the international market.
- Persistent disruptions — including vandalism, pipeline downtime, and security challenges — undermining consistent output.
There are, however, signs of progress in curbing oil theft and leakages. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported that in July 2025, crude losses fell to just 9,600 bpd, the lowest level since 2009. Between January and July 2025, total theft and metering losses amounted to 2.04 million barrels, a sharp 50.2% decline compared to the same period in 2024.
Analysts warn that while reduced losses are encouraging, Nigeria’s revenue base remains under pressure unless crude prices rebound and export volumes stabilize. The October loading plan underscores the fragile balance between rising production and shrinking external earnings, putting further scrutiny on the government’s fiscal position as global energy markets remain volatile.
