Story written by okafor joseph (July 16, 2025):
Abuja, Nigeria — July 16, 2025 – Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dropped to 22.22% in June 2025, marking the third consecutive monthly decline, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This moderation in inflation comes just days before the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is set to meet to decide on interest rates.

The June inflation figure fell from 22.97% recorded in May, suggesting that price pressures may be easing across the economy. However, on a month-on-month basis, inflation rose slightly to 1.68% in June, compared to 1.53% in May, indicating that the pace of price increases is still a concern.

The CBN has scheduled the 301st MPC meeting for Monday, July 21, and Tuesday, July 22, 2025. The Committee’s decision will be closely watched as the apex bank continues to manage inflation and currency stability through tight monetary policies.

At the last MPC meeting in May, the CBN warned that re-inflationary pressures remained a threat and stressed the importance of keeping interest rates elevated to protect recent foreign exchange gains, particularly those driven by high yields on Open Market Operation (OMO) bills.

Meanwhile, food inflation fell year-on-year to 21.97% in June, down from 21.14% in May, a decline largely driven by base-year effects following adjustments in inflation calculation methodology.

However, food prices rose month-on-month, climbing to 3.25% in June from 2.19% in May. The NBS attributed the increase to higher prices of staple items such as green peas (dried), fresh pepper, white dried shrimps, crayfish, fresh meat, fresh tomatoes, plantain flour, and ground pepper.

As Nigeria prepares for the MPC meeting, economists and market participants will be watching closely to see whether the declining inflation trend is enough to justify a pause—or even a cut—in interest rates.