Story written by Okafor Joseph Afam, Editor for SpringNewsNG Media Limited – March 12, 2025.

A review of Nigeria’s latest crude oil production data has revealed that the country recorded lower crude oil production in February 2025 than in January 2025. According to the data, total crude oil production, including blended and unblended condensates, stood at 1.671 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, marking a decline from the 1.737 million bpd recorded in January 2025.

However, when considering only crude oil production without condensates, which is the metric used for OPEC quota calculations, Nigeria produced 1.465 million bpd in February 2025, falling below the 1.538 million bpd recorded in January 2025. This means the country failed to meet the 1.5 million bpd OPEC production target set for its members.

Persistent Shortfalls

This shortfall is not an isolated incident, as Nigeria has consistently struggled to meet its OPEC production quota in recent years. A review of past production figures shows that the country also failed to reach the 1.5 million bpd quota in December 2024, when it produced 1.484 million bpd, and in November 2024, when it recorded 1.485 million bpd.

The production figures for previous months were even lower:

• October 2024: 1.333 million bpd
• September 2024: 1.324 million bpd
• August 2024: 1.351 million bpd
• July 2024: 1.306 million bpd
• June 2024: 1.276 million bpd
• May 2024: 1.251 million bpd
• April 2024: 1.281 million bpd
• March 2024: 1.230 million bpd
• February 2024: 1.322 million bpd
• January 2024: 1.426 million bpd

This declining trend extends beyond 2024. Throughout 2023 and 2022, Nigeria also failed to meet the 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota, highlighting a long-standing challenge in the country’s oil sector.

OPEC Quotas and Underperformance

Gbenga Komolafe, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, previously detailed the crude oil production quotas, excluding condensates, approved by OPEC for Nigeria from 2022 to May 2024. Despite these allocations, Nigeria consistently underperformed, a struggle that has persisted into 2025.

For reference, Nigeria’s approved production quotas by OPEC in 2022 were:

• January: 1.682 million bpd
• February: 1.701 million bpd
• March: 1.718 million bpd
• April: 1.735 million bpd
• May: 1.753 million bpd
• June: 1.722 million bpd
• July: 1.799 million bpd
• August: 1.826 million bpd
• September: 1.830 million bpd
• October: 1.826 million bpd
• November: 1.742 million bpd
• December: 1.742 million bpd

Factors Behind the Decline

Industry analysts have attributed Nigeria’s ongoing failure to meet OPEC production targets to several persistent challenges, including:

• Crude oil theft
• Large-scale illegal bunkering
• Frequent pipeline vandalism
• Operational inefficiencies
• Poor infrastructure
• Aging oil fields
• Mismanagement in the sector
• Regulatory and policy issues
• Delays in implementing key oil sector reforms

As Nigeria continues to grapple with these issues, its inability to meet the OPEC quota raises concerns about lost revenue, declining foreign exchange earnings, and broader economic implications.

The Road Ahead

With global oil market dynamics constantly shifting, Nigeria faces increasing pressure to address its production challenges and regain investor confidence. The government has pledged to combat crude oil theft and improve security around oil infrastructure, but the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain.

For now, Nigeria remains below its OPEC-mandated production level, raising concerns about its ability to fully realize the potential of its oil sector in the near future.