Nigeria Broadband Penetration Stalls at 48%, Jeopardising 70% Target for 2025
Story: written by springewsng September 4,2025
Abuja, Nigeria – September 4, 2025: Nigeria’s drive to achieve 70 percent broadband penetration by December 2025, as outlined in the National Broadband Plan (NBP 2020–2025), is at serious risk, with penetration slipping to 48.01 percent in July 2025.
The NBP, launched in March 2020 when penetration stood at 39.85 percent (75.4 million subscribers), aims to transform Nigeria’s digital economy by delivering fast, affordable internet nationwide. Its ambitious targets include:
- 70% broadband penetration by 2025
- 25 Mbps speeds in urban areas, 10 Mbps in rural areas
- 90% population coverage
- Data cost reduction to N390 per 1GB
- 70% 4G subscriptions by 2023
- A local smartphone assembly plant producing devices at N18,000
Aligned with President Bola Tinubu’s ‘Renewed Hope’ agenda, the plan envisions Nigeria’s digital economy contributing 22 percent to GDP by 2027, while creating jobs, boosting entrepreneurship, and driving inclusive growth.
Broadband Progress Slows
Despite initial gains, progress has faltered. From January to May 2025, broadband penetration rose steadily from 45.61 percent (98.87 million subscriptions) to 48.81 percent (105.7 million). However, June saw a slight dip to 48.78 percent, and by July, penetration had dropped further to 48.01 percent with 104 million active subscriptions.
This decline marks a 0.8 percentage-point drop in just two months, erasing earlier gains and underscoring the volatility of progress. Between January and July, the average penetration rate was 47.67 percent, well below the 70 percent target.
Barriers to Growth
Experts cite multiple factors behind the stagnation:
- NIN-SIM verification exercises disconnected millions of lines in 2024.
- Frequent fibre cuts—averaging 30 to 43 daily due to vandalism, construction, and theft.
- Affordability challenges, with data and device costs still high for millions.
- Infrastructure gaps, particularly in rural and underserved communities.
To reach 70 percent by December, Nigeria would need to add 9.5 million new broadband connections monthly—a rate far above the current 0.40 percent monthly growth. Analysts warn this makes the goal mathematically unattainable without urgent interventions.
Salvaging Nigeria’s Digital Future
One key project, 774 LG Connectivity, aims to connect all 774 local government areas using NIGCOMSAT’s VSAT technology and Galaxy Backbone’s infrastructure. But implementation delays, regulatory bottlenecks, and low digital literacy remain obstacles.
“With penetration declining and systemic barriers persisting, Nigeria must urgently address affordability, digital literacy, and infrastructure to salvage its broadband dream,” advised Awe, a telecoms analyst. “Accelerated reforms, stronger state cooperation, and rapid project execution are critical to unlocking the potential of Nigeria’s digital economy.”
