Inside Nigeria’s Cashew Boom: How Weather, Market Forces, and Policy Actions Drove an 11-Fold Export Surge

By Joseph Okafor | SpringNewsNG | October 8, 2025
Between September and October 2025, Nigeria’s cashew industry experienced a historic leap in export earnings — rising elevenfold compared to previous years. This dramatic surge was driven by a mix of favourable weather conditions, a weaker naira that boosted export competitiveness, global market demand, and accelerated shipments ahead of potential policy changes. SpringNewsNG’s investigation reveals how these factors combined to position Nigeria as one of Africa’s most promising cashew exporters.
1. Record-Breaking Growth: ₦626 Billion in Just Six Months
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s cashew exports in the first half of 2025 reached ₦626 billion, up from ₦315.72 billion in 2024, and far higher than ₦56.64 billion recorded in 2021.
The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) also confirmed that non-oil exports — dominated by cashews, cocoa, and fertilizer — climbed to US$3.23 billion in H1 2025, representing a 19.6% rise from the same period in 2024.
In Q1 2025 alone, cashew exports were valued at US$398.13 million, underscoring a strong start that extended into Q3.
2. The September–October Surge: What Changed?
a) Favourable Weather Patterns Boosted Output
Agronomists credit improved rainfall across cashew-producing states — including Oyo, Kogi, and Kwara — for better yields and higher nut quality. The enhanced weather cycle allowed farmers to harvest more marketable products for export.
b) Weak Naira, Stronger Exports
The naira’s depreciation against the dollar made Nigerian cashew exports cheaper and more attractive to foreign buyers. Analysts from Trade.gov noted that agricultural commodities gained a competitive edge in 2025 as global buyers sought affordable suppliers amid high food inflation.
c) Policy Uncertainty Drove Export Acceleration
Amid discussions over possible restrictions on raw cashew exports, the National Cashew Association of Nigeria (NCAN) urged the government to avoid hasty bans. Fearing regulatory changes, exporters rushed to ship large volumes between September and October to secure existing contracts and foreign exchange inflows.
d) Forward Booking and Contract Pressure
Exporters reportedly engaged in forward sales, locking in dollar contracts before the naira could slide further. This contributed to a spike in shipments toward the end of Q3 2025.
3. Missed Opportunities: The Processing Problem
Despite strong revenue growth, Nigeria still exports mostly raw cashew nuts — valued at about US$1,500 per tonne — instead of processed kernels, which sell for US$3,500 to US$8,000+ depending on grade.
According to The Guardian Nigeria, the country loses up to US$3.7 billion annually by failing to add value through local processing.
Reports from Agusto & Co. highlight poor infrastructure, unreliable power, and limited processing equipment as key bottlenecks. Only a small percentage of Nigeria’s cashews undergo local processing before export.
4. Economic Context: Inflation, Exports, and Stock Market Reaction
By August 2025, inflation had moderated slightly, with food inflation at 21.97% year-on-year, while core inflation hovered at 22.76%, according to PwC Nigeria. These cost pressures affected input materials — from fertilizer to packaging — in the cashew value chain.
The Nigerian Stock Exchange also reported that agricultural-linked commodities, especially cashew and cocoa, outperformed traditional sectors in Q3 2025, signaling investor confidence in export-driven agribusiness.
5. Outlook: Can Nigeria Sustain the Boom?
Experts warn that unless Nigeria improves processing capacity and export logistics, the cashew boom may be short-lived.
Sustainable gains will depend on:
- Continued favourable weather and climate adaptation.
- Stable foreign exchange policies.
- Investment in processing plants to capture more value.
- Strengthened quality control to meet international standards.
If properly managed, the cashew surge could mark the beginning of Nigeria’s long-awaited agriculture-led economic transformation.