Story: written by Joseph January 20,2026
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 percent in 2026, up from an estimated 4.2 percent in 2025, citing the positive effects of sustained government reforms and improving macroeconomic stability.
The forecast is contained in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, which is scheduled to be unveiled during a hybrid press conference at the National Bank of Belgium in Brussels on Monday, January 19, 2026.
According to the Fund, economic activity across sub-Saharan Africa is expected to gain momentum, with growth rising from 4.4 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent in both 2026 and 2027. The IMF attributed the regional improvement to ongoing macroeconomic adjustments and structural reform programmes in several major economies.
On the global front, the IMF expects overall growth to remain largely stable, despite a slowdown in high-technology sectors. While growth in these areas is easing, they are still expected to cushion weaker performance in other parts of the global economy. The Fund noted that tariffs and heightened uncertainty will continue to affect global output in the short term, although their drag on growth is projected to fade gradually through 2026 and 2027.
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, slightly below the estimated 3.3 percent recorded in 2025. The IMF revised its 2026 projection upward by 0.2 percentage point compared with its October 2025 outlook, while the 2027 estimate was left unchanged. However, the Fund emphasized that growth prospects vary widely across countries, with notable upward and downward revisions.
Despite signs of resilience, the IMF cautioned that downside risks to the global outlook persist. It warned that current strength is concentrated in a limited number of sectors and is often supported by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, leaving the global economy exposed to sector-specific shocks and unresolved structural challenges.
Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to remain the main drivers of global growth. China is projected to expand by 4.5 percent, reflecting steady but moderated growth in line with its structural rebalancing. India, with projected growth of 6.4 percent, is expected to remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy, supported by strong domestic demand and investment. Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to grow by 4.6 percent, with Nigeria’s outlook anchored on reform momentum and expansion in the services sector. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s projected growth of 4.5 percent reflects economic diversification efforts and stabilization in the oil sector.
Growth among advanced economies is expected to remain modest. The United States economy is forecast to grow by 2.4 percent, supported by easing financial conditions and productivity gains from technology adoption. The Euro Area is projected to see gradual improvement, with Germany growing by 1.1 percent, France by 1.0 percent, and the United Kingdom by 1.3 percent, although weak investment and structural constraints continue to weigh on performance. Japan’s economy is expected to expand by 0.7 percent, constrained by demographic pressures and subdued domestic demand.
The IMF said the WEO Update press briefing will begin at 10:30 a.m. Brussels time and will be streamed live on the Fund’s website and press platforms. The session will be led by the IMF’s Economic Counselor and Director of Research, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, alongside Deputy Research Director Petya Koeva Brooks and Research Department Division Chief Deniz Igan.
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