ETF Prices Soar Far Ahead of Indexes, Raising Red Flags for Nigerian Retail Investors
Story: Written by Zara February 11,2026
A growing mismatch in Nigeria’s stock market is sparking concern as several Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) post eye-catching, triple-digit gains that are sharply out of sync with the performance of the indexes they are designed to mirror.
The clearest case is the Stanbic IBTC ETF 30 (STANBICETF30). While the NGX 30 Index has recorded a modest year-to-date gain of 12.62 per cent, the ETF tracking it has jumped by about 497 per cent. Data from Investing.com show the fund rising from N1,066 at the start of the year to N6,367.24 by Tuesday.
Similar gaps are visible across other ETFs. The Vetiva Consumer Goods ETF (VETGOODS) has climbed 148 per cent this year, even as the NGX Consumer Goods Index gained just 5.19 per cent. Vetiva Bank ETF has returned 164 per cent, far ahead of the NGX Banking Index’s 12.79 per cent increase. Greenwich Alpha ETF, another fund tracking the NGX 30, has also delivered returns of over 160 per cent, dwarfing the index’s performance.
Market analysts attribute the divergence largely to weak trading activity. Abdulrauf Bello, a portfolio manager at Cowrywise, explained that many ETFs are thinly traded, limiting proper price discovery. According to him, such mispricing often sets the stage for corrections once investors stop paying inflated prices.
ETFs are designed to hold a basket of assets and trade on the exchange like regular stocks, offering investors diversified exposure at relatively low cost. They are particularly popular among retail investors because they provide access to multiple stocks or entire sectors in a single trade.
However, experts caution that ETF prices can drift significantly from their Net Asset Value (NAV) when demand overwhelms supply. In such cases, gains are only realised if another buyer is willing to purchase the ETF at the higher price, increasing the risk of sharp pullbacks.
As enthusiasm around ETFs grows, analysts warn retail investors to pay closer attention to liquidity levels and NAV alignment to avoid being caught in a potential market correction.
