Dangote Refinery Sees Surge in African Demand Amid Iran Conflict Fuel Crunch

Story: written by Myra March 20,2026

Aliko Dangote’s Nigerian oil refinery is experiencing an unprecedented wave of inquiries from African nations seeking fuel supplies after the war in Iran disrupted shipments from the Middle East, which supplies around 75% of refined fuel to eastern and southern Africa.

The 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals facility has been approached by countries including South Africa, Ghana, Kenya, and others. South Africa is reportedly negotiating a standard 12-month supply contract with Nigeria. “Right now it’s not about price; it’s about availability,” Dangote told The Economist, noting that the supply squeeze may persist for some time.

Africa’s supply vulnerability exposed
Approximately three-quarters of the refinery’s output is reserved for domestic consumption, leaving only a limited portion for export—highlighting the continent’s vulnerability to major supply shocks. Elitsa Georgieva of energy consultancy CITAC warned that eastern and southern Africa could be the hardest hit due to heavy reliance on Middle Eastern imports.

South Africa, which has lost nearly half its refining capacity due to accidents and chronic underinvestment, said it is coordinating with industry players to diversify fuel sources. While the country has enough reserves for the coming weeks, lawmakers have previously flagged the inadequacy of strategic stocks, which include about eight million barrels of crude but minimal refined fuel reserves.

Elsewhere, Ethiopia has instructed fuel stations to prioritise public transport and urged citizens to conserve energy, while fuel prices in Mogadishu have nearly doubled.

Businesses brace for ripple effects
The fuel shortage is reshaping corporate operations. Exxaro Resources, South Africa’s largest coal producer, reported coal prices climbing 20% to $112 per tonne as companies seek alternatives to imported fuel. CEO Ben Magara highlighted rising freight and insurance costs, as well as the need for contingency planning to mitigate supply disruptions.

Africa’s lack of membership in the International Energy Agency, which mandates 90-day oil import reserves, underscores the region’s exposure to global fuel shock