Dangote Refinery Reshapes Global Fuel Market as European Refineries Struggle With Gasoline Oversupply
Story, Daniel August 19,2025
European refineries are facing mounting pressure as Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery rapidly increases production, cutting Europe’s once-dominant gasoline exports to West Africa and pushing vulnerable plants toward possible closure.
Since beginning operations in September 2024, the 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) Dangote Refinery, located near Lagos, has steadily ramped up output, significantly reducing West Africa’s dependence on imported fuel.
Industry data reviewed by BusinessDay revealed that European gasoline exports to West Africa dropped to 285,000 bpd between January and July 2025—a one-third decline compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery received a record 595,000 bpd of crude oil in July 2025, highlighting the speed at which the plant is moving toward full operational capacity.
The shift has had a profound effect on European refiners. According to Argus Media, Nigeria—previously responsible for one in every five barrels of European gasoline sales—now buys just one in ten.
“European refiners with gasoline-heavy output have been hardest hit,” an industry analyst noted. “With Nigerian demand collapsing and inventories rising, margins have plunged to unprofitable levels.”
Gasoline stockpiles in Rotterdam, Europe’s key trading hub, have risen 9% year-on-year, even as refiners pivot toward diesel production to meet strong industrial and freight demand. But the gasoline glut is fueling fears of permanent refinery closures.
The collapse of the UK’s Lindsey refinery in July 2025, once producing 50,000 bpd, is seen as a warning signal. Owned by US-based Prax, Lindsey’s shutdown after a failed sale attempt underscores the severity of Europe’s refining crisis.
While larger players like Valero have shifted gasoline production to more flexible facilities such as Pembroke in Wales, many European refiners lack the capacity to adapt. Analysts warn that unless an estimated 600,000 bpd of excess refining capacity is cut or restructured, the European market could face deeper oversupply and further losses.
“The loss of Nigeria as a reliable gasoline outlet is a structural blow,” an economist at Oxford Energy explained. “European refiners must rethink their models—or risk going under.”
Unlike older European plants, the Dangote Refinery can adjust production between petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel depending on market demand. This flexibility, combined with Nigeria’s government push to cut fuel imports, gives Dangote a strong domestic and regional advantage.
Industry observers note that while European refiners may attempt to redirect exports to Latin America or Asia, both regions are already becoming highly competitive. For many operators, survival may now depend on cutting gasoline production altogether.
“Dangote has redrawn the global refining map,” a refining consultant said. “This is not a temporary disruption—European refineries must adapt or be left behind.”
