By Okafor Joseph Afam
October 16, 2024

Bread prices have surged sharply across Nigeria, a reflection of the elevated inflation levels that are eroding citizens’ incomes. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation climbed to 32.70 percent in September 2024, up from 32.15 percent in August. The month-on-month inflation rate also increased, rising 0.30 percent to 2.52 percent in September.

A key driver of this inflation spike has been the recent hike in petrol prices, which has affected the general cost of goods and services across the economy. Nigerians faced a petrol price jump from N597.00 to N855.00 per litre in September, and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) further raised prices last week to as high as N998 per litre in Lagos and N1,003 in the northeastern states.

Bread Out of Reach for Many

The sharp rise in inflation has particularly impacted staple goods like bread. In the past six to 12 months, bread prices have doubled. A loaf that sold for N1,000 at grocery stores just four months ago now goes for N1,300 to N1,500. Similarly, a loaf that cost N400 in October 2023 now sells for N800 in parts of Lagos and Abuja.

Jude Okafor, the national secretary of the Association of Master Bakers and Caterers of Nigeria (AMBCN), noted that the price of every ingredient used in bread production has skyrocketed. “Prices of every ingredient for bread have doubled from year to date, and the situation is hopeless for the industry,” Okafor lamented, adding that the government has yet to address these challenges, including the need for millers to incorporate cassava and potatoes in flour production.

A 50kg bag of flour, a key input for bread, now sells for N62,500, a 57.2 percent increase from N39,750 in February 2024. A 50kg bag of sugar has risen by 28.5 percent, now selling for N88,000 compared to N68,500 in February. The cost of yeast and butter has also seen dramatic increases, with yeast jumping from N22,000 to N70,000 per carton, and a 15kg box of butter rising from N18,000 to N42,000.

Expert Opinions on Inflation

Razia Khan, managing director and chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank, remarked that the modest increase in September’s inflation, despite the steep rise in petrol prices, surprised analysts. She attributed this to tight monetary policies and sluggish income growth, which have mitigated inflation’s impact. “We are more inclined to think that the further tightening of policy at the end of September…and FX stabilization of sorts thereafter, will be overriding,” she explained.

Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), expressed concern over the resurgence of inflationary pressures. “Purchasing power has continued to plunge over the past few months, further exacerbated by the surging petrol price,” he said. Yusuf identified the depreciating exchange rate, rising fuel costs, supply chain disruptions, and high energy prices as key inflation drivers.

He warned that inflation is raising production costs and undermining investor confidence, calling for urgent government intervention to tackle the country’s production and productivity challenges.

As inflation continues to erode purchasing power, bread and other essential goods are slipping further out of reach for many Nigerians, highlighting the need for swift and comprehensive economic solutions.