By Okafor Joseph Afam

The battle for this year’s Ballon d’Or seems to be one of the most wide open in years, with a series of new contenders emerging from the long shadows of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Now that the two global greats are a fading force, the prestigious award—presented annually by France Football—is truly up for grabs on October 28, when it will be handed over at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris.

In its 68th year, the golden ball could go to one of Real Madrid’s Champions League winners, a South American star such as Copa América hero Lautaro Martínez, or perhaps an individual goalscoring machine like Erling Haaland or Harry Kane.

With the 30-man shortlist now announced, let’s take a look at the leading candidates to claim the Ballon d’Or for 2024:

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid and Brazil)

Without a doubt, Vinicius Junior has made his desire to win the cherished golden ball clear—whether it’s this year or in the near future. Naming Kaka, Ronaldo, Rivaldo, and Ronaldinho as his Brazilian inspirations, the explosive forward has stepped up a gear this year and is surely among the favorites to prevail in October.

Vini enjoyed a superb 2023-24 season with an all-conquering Real Madrid, who won both the Champions League and La Liga with more than a little help from his impressive tally of 24 goals and 11 assists. While the Copa América did not pan out as planned, with Brazil crashing out in the quarter-finals, his impact in 2024 has been significant—but will it prove enough to earn sufficient points from the voting panel?

Rodri (Manchester City and Spain)

For all its dominance of European football—financially, at least—the Premier League last claimed a Ballon d’Or winner back in 2008, during Cristiano Ronaldo’s first spell at Manchester United. Now, an integral cog in the Manchester City machine that claimed their fourth-straight title last season could finally end that wait—particularly after his exploits with Spain this summer.

La Roja’s deserved win at Euro 2024 again highlighted Rodri’s all-around ability and nine-out-of-ten consistency, which has earned him attention amid a sea of headline-stealing attackers. The former Atlético Madrid man could become the first midfielder to win since Luka Modrić six years ago, and few would argue if he were handed the trophy.

Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid and France)

Having settled for third place behind Lionel Messi last year, Kylian Mbappe was widely expected to take the crown this time around, confirming his status as the world’s greatest player. Although a messy end to his Paris Saint-Germain career often saw him benched last season, heading into Euro 2024 he was set to shine again, just as he did at Qatar 2022.

Of course, the France captain had a Euros to forget, scoring only once after sustaining a serious facial injury that clearly inhibited his play, despite a protective mask. Since then, his dream move to Real Madrid has started smoothly, despite concerns about how he will dovetail with Vinicius Junior—the man who may pip him to the Ballon d’Or next month.

Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen and Germany)

While Spain stars Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams produced thrilling displays throughout Euro 2024, their club seasons were not quite as electrifying, making it unlikely that either will win the main prize this year. However, former teenage sensation Florian Wirtz should come closer to the podium. Not only did Wirtz impress for hosts Germany at the Euros, but he also played a key role in Bayer Leverkusen’s record-breaking Bundesliga win, racking up 21 goals and 21 assists.

Die Werkself’s 52-match unbeaten domestic run would not have been possible without their attacking inspiration, whose hat-trick against Werder Bremen ultimately ended their long wait for the Meisterschale. It should not be forgotten that Wirtz had to overcome a serious knee injury to fulfill his early promise, and even if he does not win in 2024, the clever forward may be back in contention for several years to come.

Toni Kroos (Real Madrid and Germany – now retired)

Bowing out at the top, Toni Kroos was at his impeccable best for the final year of an illustrious career, laying on 12 assists and making Real Madrid’s midfield tick in their latest season of glory. Not content with winning the Champions League—where he played a crucial role during the knockout phase—and La Liga once again, Kroos then turned back the clock by reversing his international retirement.

Just a few years his senior, new Bundestrainer Julian Nagelsmann tempted Kroos back for one last stand as the European Championship returned to German soil. Though the fairytale ending was spoiled when Germany went out in the quarter-finals, there have been few more influential figures in football throughout 2024.

Lautaro Martínez (Inter Milan and Argentina)

One man who did taste international success this summer was Argentina’s Lautaro Martínez, who continued his comeback after being dropped midway through his nation’s Qatar 2022 triumph. All told, “El Toro” racked up 35 goals in a superb season that ended with Copa América glory and also saw the hard-running striker captain Inter Milan to the Serie A title.

Martínez not only fired Inter to their 20th Scudetto but also won the race to be named Italy’s Capocannoniere before decisively exorcising his demons at a major finals. Adding a Golden Boot to his 2024 haul, his five goals at the Copa América—including an extra-time winner in the final—capped off a truly stellar year.

Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid and England)

Phil Foden may have reached a new pinnacle in the Premier League last season, but his mystifying inability to reproduce his best stuff on the international stage surely rules the Manchester City star out of the running. By contrast, England teammate Jude Bellingham enjoyed a fantastic debut season with European champions Real Madrid and then emerged with credit from England’s Euro 2024 campaign.

En route to winning La Liga and the Champions League during his first year in Spain, the versatile midfielder registered 23 goals and 13 assists in 42 matches, mostly played in an unfamiliar attacking position. Despite sometimes cutting a jaded figure, Bellingham followed up by helping the Three Lions reach the Euro final, scoring a spectacular winner against Slovakia in the last 16 and a stunning overhead kick to see off Serbia.

Erling Haaland (Manchester City and Norway)

Runner-up to Lionel Messi last year, as the Argentinian maestro won his eighth—and surely final—Ballon d’Or, Erling Haaland is something of a rarity in the 2020s: a top-class, goal-getting number nine. The Man City striker features on the shortlist after continuing to rack up remarkable numbers in the Premier League and Champions League, but his nation’s absence from Euro 2024 will—fairly or not—count against him.

Norway again failed to qualify for a major tournament, so Haaland was denied a big chance to shine on the international stage. Another of his kind, Harry Kane, did have that opportunity but—perhaps owing to injury—was a shadow of his former self at the Euros after taking to the Bundesliga like a duck to water and breaking numerous records with Bayern Munich.

Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid and Spain)

It is rare for a right-back to gain consideration for the game’s individual prizes—just ask the self-deprecating Gary Neville—but there is no doubt that Dani Carvajal should at least enter the conversation this year. After providing a brilliant blend of defensive grit and attacking thrust to Real Madrid in their trophy-laden 2023-24 campaign—tallying eight assists in the process—he went on to do the same for Spain at Euro 2024.

Brought into the limelight when scoring in this year’s Champions League final, Carvajal provided the platform for others to star on the international stage as La Roja claimed glory in Berlin. As with Rodri, he would be the first Spanish player to win the Ballon d’Or since legendary forward Luis Suárez some 64 years ago—both Xavi and Andrés Iniesta were beaten by Barcelona teammate Lionel Messi in their World Cup-winning year of 2010.